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Oct 4, 2012
10/12
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number one is look, john mccain won white women by seven points. that is not enough to win, given what republicans have to win white voters by overall. but, when you look at white women voters, there are groups that are more likely to vote republican and those include white women without college degrees, women who are married and then particularly women who have children. the difference is between white women who are married and white women who are single, whether it be you know, they are not married and they are widowed or they are divorced. those voters, those groups overwhelmingly go for obama so if ron is right and the president is making some gains with non-college-educated white women, that is problematic for our side. now i have not seen as much of a shift as you have noted. >> okay, let's open it up. we will go over here. yes, john. >> are we doing mike's? >> people say the choice doesn't matter that they are next up given what happened last night. it is important, the debate. is it going to mean that you know people are going to based on w
number one is look, john mccain won white women by seven points. that is not enough to win, given what republicans have to win white voters by overall. but, when you look at white women voters, there are groups that are more likely to vote republican and those include white women without college degrees, women who are married and then particularly women who have children. the difference is between white women who are married and white women who are single, whether it be you know, they are not...
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Sep 26, 2012
09/12
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it means to be competitive in this race mitt romney would have to get double john mccain's margin of 18 points among the white working class and go up to 36 points. it doesn't change among minorities despite shifts eligible voters are seeing. if this gets realized minority vote share goes up a couple points from 26% in 2008 to 28% in 2012 and again the minority support stays the same it means mitt romney would have to get a 40 point margin of white working-class voters to win the election and popular vote. let's take a look at where we are based on a recent poll that came out and set the gold standard at the pew research center fold off and they do it right and have a 3,000 persons sampled. it is reliable and they give you a lot of interesting demographic breaks. this shows among likely voters that obama is leading by eight points. if you look at averages in the national polls is a bit high relative to the average which is 4 points. if you look at polls that do it right and call cellphones and not just robot called their up by five points. this is the distance of the averages and sim
it means to be competitive in this race mitt romney would have to get double john mccain's margin of 18 points among the white working class and go up to 36 points. it doesn't change among minorities despite shifts eligible voters are seeing. if this gets realized minority vote share goes up a couple points from 26% in 2008 to 28% in 2012 and again the minority support stays the same it means mitt romney would have to get a 40 point margin of white working-class voters to win the election and...
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Sep 26, 2012
09/12
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bush, karl rove, john mccain. let's reach out to the hispanics and make reform something. it's become a party that mitt romney says there is a model he's promised a veto. the gerry before the radical policy prescription called deportation, the idea of making life so miserable here that immigrants are literally purged from the country so it's hurt badly but hispanics. the strategy, that strategy means as you point out in your excellent paper, really the southwest is out of reach in large part because of this. they've pulled off the mexico. they have a shot in colorado and nevada but if the turnout is high not much. so thankfully the hispanic strategy that the romney strategy has been let's talk about the economy. the cuban americans and puerto ricans and in hopes we can peel off just enough of them because maybe that will be the trick. the problem is in florida of the hispanic electorate has changed quite significantly. the fastest-growing group are dimond puerto rican latin american immigrants for whom immigration is a defining issue in a litmus test issue. roughly a third
bush, karl rove, john mccain. let's reach out to the hispanics and make reform something. it's become a party that mitt romney says there is a model he's promised a veto. the gerry before the radical policy prescription called deportation, the idea of making life so miserable here that immigrants are literally purged from the country so it's hurt badly but hispanics. the strategy, that strategy means as you point out in your excellent paper, really the southwest is out of reach in large part...
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Oct 2, 2012
10/12
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this is the brave man here current senator john mccain, republican. [applause] the mother teresa of the house and the senate of course and the the republican nominee for president. you have already met governor schwarzenegger. [applause] i tell governor schwarzenegger that in fact the contest for miss universe is considerably harder than mr. universe. [laughter] but he was a with former california governor and convene here at this wonderful the institute which will hold so much promise. former governor house member and member of the cabinet, tom ridge, republican from pennsylvania. [applause] also distinguished member of the military. and former house member governor and member of the cabinet democrat bill richardson of new mexico. [applause] i'm going to join these gentlemen now. i have to figure out which one is my chair. so, governor schwarzenegger, you talk about post partisanship. but i have come to think of it as post office by partisanship which is why i think you are the brave man here because senator daschle if you work with senator crist on
this is the brave man here current senator john mccain, republican. [applause] the mother teresa of the house and the senate of course and the the republican nominee for president. you have already met governor schwarzenegger. [applause] i tell governor schwarzenegger that in fact the contest for miss universe is considerably harder than mr. universe. [laughter] but he was a with former california governor and convene here at this wonderful the institute which will hold so much promise. former...
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Oct 4, 2012
10/12
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i was in virginia talking to people in prince william county and republicans who voted for john mccain four years ago. i don't know i'm going to do it doesn't like this is going to win it's not necessarily wanting to vote for the loser. it does affect some voters. >> on the other hand, it's not so where earlier in the cycle you say they didn't have a chance i'm not the only one who likes him and maybe he can pull this out and we are curious and want to know what other -- we also want to be part of the conversation with people and know what other people are thinking and i am not sure i think that is such a bad thing and need to be put into isolation before we vote. >> one other element of it is that it is an easy way to inject drama today in something that's not going to happen for a month or six months down the line. it's also a little and this person -- >> to report the polls. >> it's pretty easy journalism but it's probably no worse than going to a speech and writing down what he says. >> it's part of it, you know, it's different than saying -- it's good information to have. as a jou
i was in virginia talking to people in prince william county and republicans who voted for john mccain four years ago. i don't know i'm going to do it doesn't like this is going to win it's not necessarily wanting to vote for the loser. it does affect some voters. >> on the other hand, it's not so where earlier in the cycle you say they didn't have a chance i'm not the only one who likes him and maybe he can pull this out and we are curious and want to know what other -- we also want to...